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Source: Athens Banner-Herald, Ga.mini storageAug. 12--Global disease patterns are changing as the world heats up, and scientists need to build models that can predict future shifts, according to a University of Georgia ecologist and other scientists."It's not enough just to say things are changing. You want to be able to predict when and where, so you can manage (new disease problems),"said Sonia Altizer, a professor in UGA's Odum School of Ecology.Altizer was lead author calling for the new modeling research published in the journal Science, co-written with Richard Ostfeld of the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Susan Kutz of the University of Calgary and the Canadian Cooperative Wildlife Health Centre, Pieter Johnson of the University of Colorado and Drew Harvell of Cornell University.Longer breeding seasons for mosquitoes, for example, could mean greater transmission rates for the many diseases such as malaria, West Nile virus, dengue fever and various kinds of encephalitis.Changes in disease patterns could have important consequences not only for human health, but for agriculture, wild animals and plants, she said.Scientists for years have predicted shifts in disease patterns, and in fact already are seeing changes in some diseases of agriculture and wildlife, Altizer said.With milder temperatures, black-legged ticks that attach to white-footed mice are able to transmit Lyme disease for a longer period; in the Caribbean and other parts of the world, scientists see corals dying with temperature increases, with consequences that also affect other plants and animals that live in coral reef communities.And in the arctic, the fastest-warming region, a lungworm has become a serious problem for big muskoxen, according to the scientists.A disease or parasite may not directly affect humans, but can have big indirect effects, the scientists point out in the journal article.Diseased coral reefs can lead to a depressed tourist economy in places where tourism is a mself storagein source of income, and a high death rate for muskoxen could have dire consequences for the way of life of people who depend on them for meat, Alitzer said.A beginning point for building models should be experiments that show how different pathogens and hosts react to variations in temperature, Altizer said in a recent interview.But predicting changes in disease cycles or distribution areas will be a lot more complex than just plotting temperatures, said Altizer, who's been studying the interactions between climate, Monarch butterflies and a parasite that infects Monarch guts.Changes in rainfall patterns, such as more frequent droughts or more frequent rainy periods, come into play, for example. And as spring arrives earlier, the synchronous relationships between plants and insects can be disrupted.While climate change may boost some diseases, it could suppress other pathogens that don't thrive in warmer temperatures."Scientists still know relatively little about ... pathogen responses to climate change," the authors wrote in the article.But hard as building a model for predicting changes in disease patterns may be, it's important to get started now, especially for public health in less-wealthy countries, Altizer said."Here in the United States, we have a better public health infrastructure in place," she said.And responding to new disease challenges will cost money that relatively rich countries can better afford.But that doesn't mean the U.S. is immune."Things can break down in unexpected ways," she said.A better understanding of how warming will interact with diseases will help health officials fight the new threats, the scientists say in concluding their Science article.--Follow education reporter Lee Shearer at .facebook.com/LeeShearerABH or https://twitter.com/LeeShearer.Copyright: ___ (c)2013 Athens Banner-Herald (Athens, Ga.) Visit the Athens Banner-Herald (Athens, Ga.) at .onlineathens.com Distributed by MCT Information Services迷你倉