EVEN as Singapore grapples with domestic pain in its drive to curb foreign labour and raise productivity, seismic shifts occurring in the global economy could present new opportunities and challenges in the coming years.mini storageTwo of these shifts were highlighted in the review of the macro-economy released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) yesterday.The first key theme is that Singapore's sources of growth will start to shift more to Asia from developed economies.Traditionally, the country's export-reliant economy has been heavily dependent on the prosperity of the world's top three developed economies, the G-3: Europe, the United States and Japan. But in recent years, Singapore's neighbours in emerging Asia have become increasingly influential.As of 2009, Singapore's G-3 exposure was 24 per cent, still higher than the 14 per cent accounted for by China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines combined, the MAS review showed.The trends, however, tell a different story. Singapore's exposure to the G-3 dropped from about 27 per cent in 2000, while its exposure to Asia jumped from about 9 per cent in 2000.While the review did not contain figures more recent than 2009, given the depressed growth in G-3 economies and surging expansion in Asia since then, it is probably safe to say that Asia's relative importance to Singapore has only grown in the last four years.This signals that while Singapore still stands to benefit significantly from G-3 economies' ongoing recovery in the near term, Asia is going to "increasingly feature over the longer term".The region's growing importance to Singapore will take two forms: as a welcome source of demand for its shipments, but also as a rising competitor, especially in the field of lower value-added manufacturing.A second key theme thrown up by the MAS review is a rise in competition for local exporters, not just from their own backyard of Asia, but from developed countries that have historically been consumers and not competitors.In particular, China and the US - two of Singapore's largest export markets - are emerging as potential rivals in the area of high-tech manufacturin儲存.While the rest of South-east Asia struggles to move up the manufacturing value chain, China has already stepped up its production capabilities in higher value-added activities. These include chemicals and machinery and equipment, according to a special feature in the MAS review.As China grabs a larger share of the global market for high-tech intermediate goods exports, it is reducing its purchases of such products from other Asian economies and could begin to pose greater competition to the rest of the region, including Singapore.The US is also experiencing a wave of "onshoring" or "insourcing": the act of bringing back manufacturing activities to the US that had been outsourced to cheaper countries, such as in Asia.A variety of companies, from large firms such as Apple, Lenovo and General Electric, to smaller start-ups, are setting up factories in the US rather than overseas.One main consideration is that the cost equation has changed. The shale gas boom in the US has reduced the cost of domestic production significantly - one oft-cited figure is that natural gas in Asia is now four times as expensive as that in the US - while rising wages in Asia are eroding the region's former cost advantages.Apple said last month it will make some Macs in the US, while Lenovo set up a new production line there for its laptops, desktops and tablets earlier this year.Some core computer components - a key part of Singapore's electronics manufacturing cluster - will still be made overseas, but it may only be a matter of time before American companies decide to source these locally as well.Still, Singapore is not short on opportunities to grow its exports. It will be forced to sharpen its focus on areas it is already making headway in, such as high value-added consumer goods manufacturing and related services, as well as exports of "modern services", including communications, computer and information services and financial and insurance services, said MAS.The next few years may be a time of profound changes locally and globally. If the restructuring of the domestic economy succeeds, Singapore should be quite up to the challenge.fiochan@sph.com.sg迷你倉
留言列表
